Foreword

Dmitry Orlov originally relayed this volleyed essay to Surviving Peak Oil‘s Dale Allen Pfeiffer (DAP), who, also serving as science editor for From the Wilderness (FTW), elected to luckily pass it through that larger publication. Here, reprinted, is Dale’s original foreword to that publication:

Several months ago, Dmitry Orlov suggested writing an essay for Surviving Peak Oil relating how the people of Russia survived the collapse of the Soviet Union. I heartily welcomed the idea, and that was the last I heard from Dmitry for some time. I had just about given up on the article when it finally did appear a few weeks ago. In reading through this article, I quickly ascertained that Dmitry had far exceeded his goal. It was clear that this article deserved a larger readership than I could give it at survivingpeakoil.com. As science editor at From the Wilderness, I passed this article on to Mike and Jamey, and they readily agreed that it should be published by FTW.

Through his comparison and contrast of the Former Soviet Union to the U.S., Dmitry provides us with one of the most penetrating analyses of post-peak that I have read. This article is packed with original insights derived from personal experience. The picture which Dmitry paints is unsettling, but it is far better than jumping feet first into darkness. The impending breakdown of the US and world economies is here clarified to the point that you can begin to prepare for this eventuality. And this article gives some of the most practical suggestions on how to prepare. I gained a great deal from this article, and I would like to personally thank Dmitry for sharing it.

Before presenting the article, perhaps we should emphasize one major difference between the collapse of the Soviet Union and the dissolution which now confronts us. Russia was able to survive the collapse and stage a comeback because it was largely a political and economic collapse. Russia still had a rich resource base, and most importantly vast energy reserves. Moreover, it was a regional collapse; there was a healthy world outside of Russia to which it could turn for aid, albeit at an exploitive price. Following the global peak of oil and the worldwide, irreversible decline in energy production, there will be little left on which to stage a comeback. Any economy which is dependent on hydrocarbon energy will be slowly constricted. Dmitry mentions this in his article, but it bears repeating. In this sense, the collapse of the Soviet Union could be viewed as a dress rehearsal for what is to come. — DAP, FTW Science Editor

Contents

Dmitry Orlov originally relayed this volleyed essay as one aggregate essay. For “better, faster, harder” navigation and presentation, Raiazome artificially cleaves this essay into two parts: the first, on why comparison between the antipodes of the same civilization (the S.U. and U.S.) is valid, and the second, on why the first antipode of that civilization to collapse (the S.U.) did collapse more gently than the second (the U.S.) is now predicted to.

1. Parts.
   1. Antipodes of the Same Civilization.
   2. A Multitude of Useful Lessons.

Copyright

© 2005 Dmitry Orlov.

Source

Raiazome sourced this essay from this June 1st, 2005 blog-post at Dmitry‘s blog, ClubOrlov. Thanks a thistled heap, newfound comrade-ally.